Fed:Leading jobs index drops for 14th consecutive month

AAP General News (Australia)
02-11-2009
Fed:Leading jobs index drops for 14th consecutive month

CANBERRA, Feb 11 AAP - The federal government's leading indicator of employment growth
has fallen for a fourteenth consecutive month.

The Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations (DEEWR) says the February
reading of its monthly leading indicator of employment was minus 0.321, compared with
minus 0.193 in January.

"The indicator is still confirming a prospective slowdown in the pace of employment
growth below its long-term trend of 2.3 per cent per annum," the department said.

Official labour force data for January are released on Thursday.

Economists are forecasting an 18,000 drop in employment, lifting the jobless rate to
4.7 per cent from 4.5 per cent, the highest level since September 2006.

The leading jobs indicator anticipates movements in the growth cycle of employment,
with a turning point confirmed when there are six consecutive monthly movements in the
same direction after the turning point.

It does this through the use of a composite index of four weighted series - ANZ Newspaper
Job Advertisements, Dun and Bradstreet Employment Expectations, the Westpac-Melbourne
Institute Leading Index of Economic Activity and the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer
Sentiment Index.

AAP cb/cdh

KEYWORD: JOBS

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